Climate change temperature extremes to increase risk of gout flares
Gout is an episodic form of arthritis associated with elevated uric acid levels. The impact of ambient temperature on gout flares is supported by theorised biological mechanisms and small-scale observational studies. As the number of people living with gout has increased over recent decades, concerns are growing that more frequent and intense temperature extremes may further increase the burden of disease.
In this first of its kind population-level study published in the International Journal of Population Data Science (IJPDS), researchers from Western Australia examined the relationship between daily maximum temperature and hospitalisations for gout flares among residents of metropolitan Perth. The authors analysed 35 years of hospital data supplemented with meteorological, public holiday and population data. An advanced statistical modelling approach was used to assess both immediate and delayed effects of temperature exposure.
The study found that both hot and cold temperatures were associated with an increased risk of gout flare hospitalisations, compared with days when the maximum temperature was a more moderate 24°C. The timing and magnitude of risk varied by sex and age.
Following hot days with maximum temperatures above 35°C, men aged 75 years and over experienced an immediate increased risk. Women in the same age group showed elevated risk between Days 3 and 4, while men under 75 years experienced increased risks between Days 6 and 8. After cold days, defined as maximum temperatures of 15°C or lower, men aged 75 years and over experienced higher risk between Days 7 to 10. The authors note that these temperature thresholds are specific to the study location and period and may differ in other settings.
These findings add gout to a growing list of health conditions sensitive to temperature extremes, including cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, diabetes and mental health conditions.
The results have important implications for public health planning and health system preparedness in the context of climate change. The study highlights three key considerations: Firstly, prevention efforts should address both hot and cold temperatures; Secondly, health services must prepare for delayed as well as immediate impacts following temperature exposure; and particular attention should be given to older people, especially those aged 75 years and over.
Lead author Dr Derrick Lopez emphasised that “With extreme temperature events becoming more frequent worldwide – including the heatwaves experienced across Australia in early 2026 – understanding how climate variability affects chronic conditions such as gout is increasingly important.”
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Dr Derrick Lopez, The University of Western Australia